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Headlines Alpha Tropical Storm? bahahah

Jung

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#21
Lol, meteorologist say this isn't being caused by global warming, but Rageagainst seems to know better. Scientists say that so far, hurricane history provides no evidence of any connection between global warming and the number of hurricanes we will see. I guess we should just take his word for it though... right?

If global warming was playing such a large roll in the number of hurricanes, then why don't our records of hurricanes from previous years coincide with your theory? Have a look at this and tell me if you see any proof of a constant increase.

In fact, outside of pure opinion, you've shown no evidence that global warming is actually effecting the number of hurricanes we're seeing. All you've posted was that article from UCAR, and even it states:
But whether all of this is due to human-induced global warming is still uncertain, said Webster. "We need a longer data record of hurricane statistics, and we need to understand more about the role hurricanes play in regulating the heat balance and circulation in the atmosphere and oceans."
http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm
Is the frequency of hurricanes increasing?

Although the average number of hurricanes between 1995 and 2005 is probably unprecedented, we have not seen a long-term increase in hurricane frequency during the 20th century overall. Instead, we have seen periods of high hurricane activity that last for several decades, followed by decades of low activity. The 1920s-30s and 1950s-60s were active periods. In 1995 we entered and are currently in the latest natural phase of high hurricane frequency, which is expected to persist for another decade or two.

The number of storms that occurred in 2004 was the third-highest number in the 1950-2004 window. The 2005 season is expected to surpass 2004 and may become the most active season on record. Nevertheless, this recent window of unusually high activity is too short to determine whether it represents a long-term increase in hurricane frequency.


What causes more active hurricane seasons?

Hurricane activity is influenced by cycles of natural climate variability. The major driver of long-term hurricane frequency appears to be the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a regional cycle of climate in the Atlantic region that influences ocean temperatures. Higher ocean temperatures are more suitable for hurricane formation (especially major hurricanes), while low temperatures are associated with less active hurricane seasons. In 2004 and 2005, the sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico have been unusually high, and appear to have been unprecedented at the time that Hurricane Katrina was gaining strength from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico.



Will global warming increase the frequency or intensity of hurricanes in the future?

Just about everyone is now aware of climate change, so when an extreme weather event occurs, it is not unusual for people to ask if it is the result of global warming. Because of the link between higher ocean temperatures and hurricanes, there is speculation that hurricanes will increase in frequency or intensity in a warmer world, with higher wind speeds and greater precipitation. As stated above, the frequency of hurricanes has not increased on average over the long term. However, scientists believe that global warming will result in more intense hurricanes, as increasing sea surface temperatures provide energy for storm intensification. An MIT study published recently in Nature provides the first data analysis indicating that tropical storms are indeed becoming more powerful over time.

Higher ocean temperatures may also influence the tracks of hurricanes, increasing the likelihood of hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean or making landfall on the U.S. east coast. Although his phenomenon is not very well understood, a track of unusually deep and warm water appears to have led Katrina directly to the Gulf Coast when it struck Louisiana and Mississippi.
So like I said previously, even though scientist speculate, and rightly so, that global warming will increase the intensity of hurricanes, there is no scientific evidence that it will cause more hurricanes to form.
 

MaxPower

You're my number two
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#22
RageAgainst said:
For the first time in meteo history a tropical storm is named in greek alphabet. Why, oh why? You know the answer, yeeep, the seas are warming. One could prove right now that the warmer the water, the higher the probability of hurricanes. Under a certain water temperature, hurricanes can't physically take place. The more it goes warm, the more the hurricanes, and the stronger.

So I repeat: right now, for the first time in history, we're using Alpha for the next hurricane and so on. Well Alpha has already taken place and is just a tropical storm for now. How many more after?

How many next year? what if it's worst than this year, and it makes more damage.. It's because the ocean gets hotter. Then all those saying "global warming is a stinking pile of bullshit" will be idiots. If it magically stops, then hoorah. But the ocean do warm up more abruptly than some would like to ignore.
But Rage, our president said that was all hogwash. I for one believe him over all of these silly self proclaimed meteorologists, and scientists. He does in fact have a direct line to god, and consults with him regularly. :rolleyes:
 

Jung

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#23
First of all, the oceans are hotter now than 30 years ago and temperature definitely have something to do with hurricanes. Looks like your little natural pattern could very well be broken by "Man's hand".
You seem to be making the assumption that warmer water = more hurricanes, which isn't necessarily true. Warmer water doesn't mean much when pressure and other variables aren't right. So while warmer water won't increase the number of hurricanes we see, it will increase the strength of those that do form.
 

RageAgainst

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#24
junglizm said:
Lol, meteorologist say this isn't being caused by global warming, but Rageagainst seems to know better.
Lol!!1, meteorologists say global warming causes stronger hurricanes.

so basically you're saying: ocean warming makes hurricanes stronger, but doesn't necessarily cause more of them.

Well, I guess we'll have to wait for more long term scientific research on this, while the number of hurricanes increase each year.

Let me put it this way : At a certain temperature and under, x, hurricanes can't physically take place. x + 0.0001 makes a tiny chance of a hurricane taking place. x + 1, more chance of hurricane formation. x + 2, an even higher probability and so on.

So yeah.. Sea temperatures don't affect the number of hurricanes.. Nope.. Only fools would think that, right jung?
 

RageAgainst

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#25
junglizm said:
You seem to be making the assumption that warmer water = more hurricanes, which isn't necessarily true. Warmer water doesn't mean much when pressure and other variables aren't right. So while warmer water won't increase the number of hurricanes we see, it will increase the strength of those that do form.
So far, your point isn't proven and mine isn't either. Meteorologists say there is no proof yet that warmer water makes more hurricanes. It's like saying, there is no proof yet that warmer water does not make more hurricanes. So meh.
 
R

RedOctober

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#26
It doesn't make sense!
I have been fishing on the North Sea for at least 10 years, and sometimes my hands nearly fell of so fucking cold were they. Another year, in the same season, they felt warm.
If the water in the North Sea is warm, we surely get more rain.
It's as simple as that, because we live downwind of the Gulfstream.
Where I live is as north as South West Canada where it's freaking cold in the winter, and we have a nearly subtropical climate.

America on the other hand has a land climate, and is much less influenced by the sea or ocean. The only thing what happens is that at the border of land and sea climate there are huge collisions possible, and so the hurricanes are formed.

The same goes for Japan.
 

Jung

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#27
Let me put it this way : At a certain temperature and under, x, hurricanes can't physically take place. x + 0.0001 makes a tiny chance of a hurricane taking place. x + 1, more chance of hurricane formation. x + 2, an even higher probability and so on.
Let me put it this way: only a fool would think that heat alone creates hurricanes. Now the question is, are you that fool?
while the number of hurricanes increase each year.
Maybe you overlooked this when you were pretending to read my post. I'm sure that's the case, so I'll point it out again for you.

NHC/TPC Archive of Past Hurricane Seasons - guess what? There's no trend that shows this increase you claim is happening!
So yeah.. Sea temperatures don't affect the number of hurricanes.. Nope.. Only fools would think that, right jung?
Maybe if you'd try reading you'd understand...
junglizm said:
You seem to be making the assumption that warmer water = more hurricanes, which isn't necessarily true. Warmer water doesn't mean much when pressure and other variables aren't right. So while warmer water won't increase the number of hurricanes we see, it will increase the strength of those that do form.
Of course all you have is your little theory and now these silly insults to back up your posts. Post some proof if you're right; I've already demonstrated that hurricanes are NOT increasing in number in past years.
RageAgainst said:
So far, your point isn't proven and mine isn't either.
My point has been proven; there is no trend of an increased occurrence of hurricanes. You have just chosen to disregard that evidence.
 

RageAgainst

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#28
junglizm said:
Of course all you have is your little theory and now these silly insults to back up your posts.
What the fuck are you talking about, I didn't insult you. Looks like you were just "pretending to read my post"

The whole fucking point is sea warming makes more category 4-5 hurricanes. That's bad.

And no, heat alone does not make hurricanes, but it provides them energy.
 

RageAgainst

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#29
junglizm said:
My point has been proven; there is no trend of an increased occurrence of hurricanes. You have just chosen to disregard that evidence.
Alpha tropical storm.. 2005 is a record year, 2004 is third, enough said

Then you're gonna say, "maybe if you tried reading my posts you'd understand that it's a natural pattern"

Sure buddy. Come back to me in 2020
 

Jung

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#30
RageAgainst said:
Alpha tropical storm.. 2005 is a record year, 2004 is third, enough said
So your wealth of proof is based upon an increase from 2004 to 2005? You should have been a scientist, because that is fucking profound.
 

Noalear

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#31
junglizm is the only one thats right out of the whole bunch of you. he uses real scientific facts to back his shit up while rage uses equations, facts, theories, etc that he has pulled out of his ass. rage is acting the same as when you fight a christian for his belief of god. They make up the rules as they need made up and thats what rage is doing. Quit trying to make connections that simply dont exist. Global warming is a giant media frenzy. While everyone is quick to blame disasters on things that are "human caused" but the fact is its completely out of our control. Do you think hurricanes happened before we had cars, power plants, and other "devastating" technology? Hell yes. Dinosaurs were getting fucked by hurricanes.
Our cars arent causing the water to warm up making more devastating and powerful hurricanes. Think of it this way, Whats the easiest way to heat a pool? Put a solar cover on it. Not a blanket, or a heater blowing hot air on it. That wont do shit to heat a pool up. It is completely how many solar rays are striking the water molecules, like a microwave. Thats what causes a pool to heat up and it still takes FOREVER for that to work. Now think of an ocean. Do you know how long it would take to actually make the temperature change?? Maybe the ice caps are melting... maybe they are actually just doing what they do. They obviously have to melt away sometimes, or else they would be freakin massive! If snow just pilled and pilled on top of them where would our water be then? I saw let the ice caps melt, let the salinity of the ocea drop- let the earth do its thing. Costal cities might flood. Rivers will rise.. kinda. Know what? We still have tons of land to live on. The climates will change? So fucking what? Our forrests that people live in may become deserts? Our deserts that people live in may become forrests? People to the rescue. We can move the animals where they need to be, this probably happened with the dinosaurs. No one was there to make sure they got moved to where they needed to be. Let the earth change, let the survival of the fittest begin. All I have to say, figure out how to grow crops, you can always grow those. Plus it might not even be an issue..
http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/wwn/20050912/112653720013.html
:-O we are in sooo much trouble :-P hahaha.

Fuck the world, when it breaks.. we'll be here to fix it.
 

RageAgainst

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#32
Noalear said:
junglizm is the only one thats right out of the whole bunch of you. he uses real scientific facts to back his shit up while rage uses equations, facts, theories, etc that he has pulled out of his ass. rage is acting the same as when you fight a christian for his belief of god. They make up the rules as they need made up and thats what rage is doing. Quit trying to make connections that simply dont exist. Global warming is a giant media frenzy. While everyone is quick to blame disasters on things that are "human caused" but the fact is its completely out of our control. Do you think hurricanes happened before we had cars, power plants, and other "devastating" technology? Hell yes. Dinosaurs were getting fucked by hurricanes.
Our cars arent causing the water to warm up making more devastating and powerful hurricanes. Think of it this way, Whats the easiest way to heat a pool? Put a solar cover on it. Not a blanket, or a heater blowing hot air on it. That wont do shit to heat a pool up. It is completely how many solar rays are striking the water molecules, like a microwave. Thats what causes a pool to heat up and it still takes FOREVER for that to work. Now think of an ocean. Do you know how long it would take to actually make the temperature change?? Maybe the ice caps are melting... maybe they are actually just doing what they do. They obviously have to melt away sometimes, or else they would be freakin massive! If snow just pilled and pilled on top of them where would our water be then? I saw let the ice caps melt, let the salinity of the ocea drop- let the earth do its thing. Costal cities might flood. Rivers will rise.. kinda. Know what? We still have tons of land to live on. The climates will change? So fucking what? Our forrests that people live in may become deserts? Our deserts that people live in may become forrests? People to the rescue. We can move the animals where they need to be, this probably happened with the dinosaurs. No one was there to make sure they got moved to where they needed to be. Let the earth change, let the survival of the fittest begin. All I have to say, figure out how to grow crops, you can always grow those. Plus it might not even be an issue..
http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/wwn/20050912/112653720013.html
:-O we are in sooo much trouble :-P hahaha.

Fuck the world, when it breaks.. we'll be here to fix it.
Sorry but you have no fucking clue, the climate up in north Canada is getting warmer every year, it went up 1.5 celcius in 40 years. The icebergs melt by 400 cubic kilometers each year. Global warming is real. We reject billions of tons of CO2 in the atmosphere every year. This increases greenhouse effect, wich makes it a bit hotter. More heat means more water vapor, and more greenhouse effect. Things are not looking good if people keep thinking just like you. Stop living with your head in your ass and wake the fuck up.
 
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#33
Jungilizm is right to say that the theory of global warming is unproven, just as he is to say that the theory of warming seas leading to stronger hurricanes is unproven. he did point out that the theories also hadn't been disproven, but you chose to ignore that.

let me lay out a list of things that have not been proven. that isn't to say that there isn't evidence supporting these beliefs, just to say that no absolute proof exists.

these have not been proven:
that the planet is heating up, a 1.5 degree variance is within 'background levels' for the planet according to the ice records. undisputably the trend over the last 30 years has been increase, but there's nothing to say it's going to keep heating up next year. also, contrary to the 'thousands of years' statements earlier, much larger temperature variances have happened in much shorter time periods naturally.
the CO2 levels are increasing because of human influence. the argument for this is very strong, but without any way of tracing where the CO2 is coming from, it's impossible to say that the relatively small amount we produce (compared to the volumes that transfer from the sea to the atmosphere) is what's unbalancing the scales. it's certainly the most convincing theory, but it's not proven.
that increased CO2 levels are causing the increase an temperature. oddly, temperatures only seem to be increasing at ground level, and not in the atmospheric layers all below the greenhouse gases as you'd expect, and in unpopulated areas the temperature changes are even more minor.
that rising sea temperatures are the cause of the increased strength of hurricanes for the last two years. the last two years do not have the hottest seas on record, and the hurricane intensity compared to sea temperatures for that year graphs show pretty much nothing eitherway. hurricanes are far to random to base anything off of two years, and while all of these things may be true, if you think they've been proven you don't understand science.

hypothesis < theory < law.

of course, with a strong case supporting the greenhouse theory, we should be doing something to ensure we don't find out the hard way if it is true, espescially when it's well within our means.

cutting down forests basically does nothing though, since trees are just a CO2 sink in the long run. what they remove, will in time go back.